How do you distinguish the signal from the noise?
I have had the honor of interviewing Mehdi Nemri: a brilliant mathematician and futurist.
His field? Mapping future scenarios, modeling extremes scenarios, and making the invisible... legible.
This is not a typical conversation, it's also a long one that requires a bit of focus. So I suggest you take a cup of coffee or tea, you sit, and take the time to read and "digest" this interview.
Who is Mehdi Nemri - in his own words?
I've been practicing prospective analysis since 2013, with a pause in teaching. I'd describe myself as a practitioner of anticipation, encompassing consulting for organizations, extensive research - which increasingly constitutes a large portion of my work - and training. Collectively, these activities define my professional role.
However, fundamentally, I consider myself more of a theorist.
A mathematician deeply engaged with long-term issues, dedicated to developing mathematical methods and tools to better understand potential future developments. The term 'prospective practitioner' can sometimes seem vague; thus, my path has led me to identify primarily as a mathematician and theorist.
Table of Contents
- What are extreme scenarios?
- Cognitive biases in foresight
- When rare events deserve a seat at the table
- Modeling complexity: nonlinear thinking
- Weak signals
- Signal vs. Noise
- AI in foresight
- Typologies of signals
- Philosophy of the "future(s)"
Oriane: Mehdi, let’s start by defining the basics. What is an "extreme scenario" from your perspective?